Based on CRU it is expected that the global aluminium market will be balanced in 2017. Aluminium ingot supply will grow and this growth is driven by Indian and Chinese companies. Based on CRU forecasts aluminium demand will increase by 3% to 5% in 2017 as supply growth will be 4% to 6%.
Chinese housing and transportation sector is one of the main demand drivers of aluminium in 2017. on the other hand US and EU stable economic growth will improve demand outlook.on the supply side indian and chinese are increasing capacity. also in 2017 we will see china tightening environmental targets on aluminium plants.
in 2016 china aluminium production was about 32 mt and other countries in the world was 27 mt. the 31 mt demand in china and 28 mt in other countries is expected.it is expected 209,000 t supply surplus in 2017 which is considerable comparing 949 supply deficit in 2016. the surplus will cause pressure on aluminium price.
India is the newcomer in the aluminium market. CRU forecasts shows India aluminium will grow from 750,000 t supply surplus in 2016 to 1.2 mt in 2020. also middle east countries have extensive developments plans to increase aluminium production. middle east supply surplus will increase from 3 mt in 2016 to 3.4 mt in 2020.
Source: CRU – Hydro analysis